HURRICANE

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N37W. The ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N and E of 34W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery in the SE Gulf of Mexico waters, while fairly tranquil conditions prevail in the remainder of the basin. The tail end of a cold front extends across the far NE Gulf waters along 29N and E of 86W. A surface trough is analyzed from 25N81W to 23N95W. No significant convection is noted near these features at this time. A weak pressure gradient is evident across the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds off northern Yucatan and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are found in the Gulf. Dense haze is also occurring in the western and central Gulf from agricultural fires in Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, scattered showers will prevail over the Straits of Florida today, supported by a mid to upper-level trough that extends from the southeastern U.S. Coast southwestward to the southeast Gulf. Gusty winds along with rough seas will prevail near the convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection continue over Panama and Costa Rica, in the vicinity of the EPAC monsoon trough. A dry environment prevails elsewhere. A weak Atlantic surface ridge prevails N of the area. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-9 ft in this area. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

Dense haze caused from agricultural fires in Mexico is noted across portions of the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E winds in the south- central Caribbean will shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela through Tue night and diminish early on Wed. A deep layer trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through Fri, supporting active weather E of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the central Caribbean Tue and shift eastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but continue to thin out.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a low pressure near Bermuda to NE Florida. A combination of an upper level trough entering the western Atlantic and tropical moisture support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh southerly winds are found north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present south of 23N and west of 65W. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

The central and eastern Atlantic are influenced by the 1023 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 12N and east of 22W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with the front/trough through midweek, then light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected through Fri.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era